‘Nationalist Narratives’ Seen as Risk to Luxury Goods

“The rise of nationalist narratives everywhere — including in China — is making life tougher for global brands,” equity analysts at Bernstein warn. In a research note published Monday, lead authors Luca Solca and Maria Meita argued that “recent policy decisions in the U.S.” are dampening hopes that the “cyclical demand environment has improved.” Import duties are a key concern: “If at 20 [to] 25 percent they could make the economic recovery in China more difficult and weaken demand of U.S nationals; if at 200 percent — as President Donald Trump has indicated for spirits — they would close the U.S. market to European spirits companies entirely.” Among strategies Bernstein recommends to European players to counter the risks are: A more balanced nationality mix less dependent on China, and tilted toward the U.S. as a “new growth frontier,” particularly in the heartland, where luxury stores are popping up in cities like Detroit, Nashville, Austin, St. Louis and Minneapolis. “Solidly global” communications and partnerships, like LVMH’s sponsorship of the 2024 Paris Games and its 10-year pact with Formula 1. Producing more luxury goods in America, especially if “local states or the federal administration support new investments and provide capital inducements.” That said, Compagnie Financière Richemont’s most recent trading

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